JPMorgan predicts the end of the pandemic in 2022
The American investment bank JPMorgan Chase considers that the next year 2022 will mark the end of the coronavirus pandemic, giving way to a global economic recovery.
“Our view is that 2022 will be the year of full global recovery, of the end of the pandemic, and of a return to normal economic and market conditions that we had before the covid-19 outbreak,” says the chief global markets strategist. JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic.
"This will be ensured with the arrival of broad population immunity and with the help of human ingenuity, as new therapies are expected to be widely available in 2022," explains the expert quoted by Reuters.
The end of the pandemic will lead to a "strong" recovery in the economy, characterized by a return to global mobility and robust spending by consumers and businesses.
The JPMorgan analyst forecasts growth in equity markets, while expecting the S&P 500 index to rise nearly 8% from its current level through the end of next year.
“In 2021, world economies made great strides toward recovery and reopening. However, much remains to be done, as the recovery was uneven, incomplete and often interrupted by new virus outbreaks and fears”, recalls Kolanovic.
JPMorgan has also warned of some hurdles ahead, such as central banks withdrawing from easing monetary policy.
For Kolanovic this will happen from April to June. That is the date with which, according to him, the stock market and most economists work.
Kolanovic made this prediction even taking into account new variants of the virus such as the British strain, which has been warned may become dominant. He believes that vaccination will have more weight in the evolution of the pandemic: “The variant is not incompatible with a general decrease in Covid and the end of the pandemic in the second trimester due to vaccination, natural immunity, seasonality and other factors. . While the data set is still small, statistical analysis of the vaccination data is consistent with a sharp decline at 40-70 days."
Author: Patricia Chung 7:58 pm