With Trump, at All Costs…
The new Mexico-USA migration agreement still has a long way to go to become a reality. For now, we can formulate some reflections on an understanding that Mexico had never accepted, not even in the worst moments of Central American migration to the United States, and that constitutes a real shame for the country.
First, it is convenient to reproduce some notes from the United States in this regard, since for a change the Mexican media cannot adequately report on the subject. According to The Washington Post, the newspaper that followed the matter with the greatest closeness for some time (I clarify: I am a columnist for The New York Times):
HomelandSecurity announced new measures that require asylum seekers at the border to return to Mexico and wait there while their applications are processed, possibly for months or years, and described the plan as one of the most significant changes in immigration in decades…
This policy will face legal challenges…
Still, the deal amounts to a significant diplomatic win for Trump, who has engaged in sensitive talks to cajole Mexico into a migratory lobby for Central Americans seeking asylum in the United States...
In interviews with The Washington Post Last month, senior AMLO officials (Andrés Miguel López Obrador) said they would accept this stance… as part of a broader package of development and assistance to create jobs in Central America and reduce the need to emigrate…
But that financing consists mainly of resources that the United States has already allocated. Mexican officials denied any link between the announcement of the development package and the migration package…
The Mexicans insisted that the position was not an agreement, but rather an imposition by the United States...
The outline of the change in asylum matters was negotiated by the Mexican Foreign Minister and the Secretary of Homeland Security, the secretary of state and a small group of aides who met at a hotel in Houston last month…
“I wonder if Mexico knows what it has gotten itself into,” said a border security analyst at WOLA. The wait for asylum hearings today exceeds 1.200 days.
Is Mexico really prepared to receive hundreds of thousands of people for so long?
questions that arise
Several questions arise before these announcements and their consequent interpretations. Does the agreement between Mexico and the United States cover only Central Americans who apply for asylum as of yesterday, or all those who have been in the United States for a long time? According to the Mexican government, it only applies to new ones and those in Tijuana. According to Washington, it involves all Central American asylum seekers, wherever they are in the United States, and when they arrive.
Where will the “returnees” be placed? Will they remain free inside Mexico and risk entering the United States without papers, or will they be placed in refugee camps, with or without UNHCR supervision, guarded by Mexican authorities? It is not known, but logic suggests the latter.
Who is going to bear the cost of all this, especially if it involves all Central Americans without papers in the United States and not just those from Tijuana? Months ago the version was leaked according to which Washington offered 20 million dollars to assume this cost; Mexico rejected it. What are we up to?
What will happen if US and/or Mexican civil society organizations challenge the legality of the US decision to deport Central Americans to Mexico and of Mexico to receive them? No doubt groups like the ACLU and AILA will do it there; perhaps (it is unlikely) some Mexican NGO will have the courage to do it here. How would we be left if the US Judiciary decides that deportation is illegal, but we continue to protect Hondurans?
We could not have imagined a capitulation of this magnitude by a so-called leftist government in Mexico to the United States. But it makes sense: avoid any confrontation with Trump at all costs. The problem lies in the definition of “at all costs”.
_______________________________________________